Daily Weather Discussion - Tuesday March 1st 2011

High Pressure in Control Today; Colder Mid-week; Significant Storm Late Week

The storm system that brought milder temperatures, rain and even some isolated thunderstorms to southern Ontario yesterday in the early morning hours has since moved off to the east and in it's wake, colder air has returned to Southern Ontario. Nothing to substantial, but cold enough to freeze what had melted on Monday. Generally 10-20mm of rain fell, with some higher pockets towards the SW of the province that experienced isolated thunderstorm activity.

High pressure is in control today with sunshine across Southern Ontario and temperatures around the freezing mark with some centres just above by a couple degrees. Winds will also be generally light as the ridge moves over the area.

A cold front approaching in the overnight hours will likely bring a few flurries across the province, but nothing significant to be heard off. Temperatures will drop to below seasonal values for Wednesday.

As mentioned last week, there is a significant storm system approaching for the end of the week.

Current computer models are suggesting a milder flow of air, thus making this an all rain event. Temperatures are expected to approach double digits by Saturday ahead of the cold front associated with this approaching storm system.

Models are suggesting 20-30mm of rain beginning Friday and continuing into Saturday. There may be a change over to snow Saturday as colder air begins to filter in from the west.

The tricky thing is... the snow/rain line is just north of the GTA. Areas around Barrie northwards towards cottage country and around the Kawarthas may see more snow from this system.

The exact track is not yet certain so a slight shift southwards could make the difference between rain or snow for the region. I will continue to monitor this approaching storm over the next couple of days.

So, with today being the first day of Meteorological Spring (Astronomical Spring begins March 20th), what can we look forward to in the coming months? Well... Environment Canada has released a statment saying that a large portion of the country will see colder than normal coditions throughout the Spring. Here is the link to the article.http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/02/28/canada-weather-colder.html?ref=rss

                                                                                                                                                                

The warmest temperature in Southern Ontario for yesterday was:

Long Point +7°C  @5am

Regional Stats from Environment Canada:

• Toronto               2.6 / -4.5
• Hamilton            2.6 / -5.0
• London               2.2 / -6.4
• Windsor              2.6 / -3.6
• Sarnia                 1.6 / -5.7
• Peterborough     2.6 / -4.5
• Muskoka            0.4 / -9.6 

 Computer Model Temperature Anomoly for Southern Ontario over the next 10 days.

0.3 degrees above normal