Wednesday February 23rd Discussion

High pressure is certainly in control over Southern Ontario with sunshine across the board today. Temperatures will begin to creep up towards the freezing mark for many areas as the strong late February sun warms things up.
UV index values will also be around the 4 or Moderate mark for the region.

Now a few things to take a look at....
There is an approaching cold front that will likely bring a few scattered showers to the region Thursday afternoon or evening. Now, I say showers because temps will be to mild to support snow, however there could be some wet snow involved in the overnight period. Temperatures on Thursday will be into the low single digits across Southern Ontario. The cold front will not do much to lower the temperatures as there is another system right on it's heals.

Snow from this system will likely move in Friday during the day or later afternoon. We will be on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield so any slight movement to the south would mean the difference between getting a couple cm of snow or nothing. The temperature profile of the atmosphere is marginal over Southern Ontario for Friday, however i do think it will be cold enough to support snow. Nothing major at this point.. just a coating is likely to maybe 2cm max.

Another thing Im watching is a storm system moving in for Monday. At this point in the game, it appears to be a rain storm as there will be a good push of mild air coming up form the south. The storm is fairly deep on the computer models which will allow a strong inflow ahead of it. Precip may start as snow or freezing rain, but quickly change to rain as the warmer air moves over Southern Ontario. I will certainly keep you updated on the progression of this storm.

The next couple of weeks will be a stormy period as the storm track moves across Southern Ontario. It's going to be a tough time forecasting as temperatures will be close to the freezing point which could mean the difference between getting dumped on with snow or plain old rain.

Visible Sat Image of Southern Ontario today. Notice the ice breaking up on Lake Erie.

The warmest temperature recorded yesterday across Southern Ontario according to METAR reports.

Parry Sound  -2°C at 5pm
Several centres recorded high temps of -3°C